Papers with Uncertainty estimation
Do Not Design, Learn: A Trainable Scoring Function for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMs (2025.findings-naacl)
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Duygu Nur Yaldiz, Yavuz Faruk Bakman, Baturalp Buyukates, Chenyang Tao, Anil Ramakrishna, Dimitrios Dimitriadis, Jieyu Zhao, Salman Avestimehr
| Challenge: | Existing methods for probability-based UE are limited by their inability to handle biased probabilities and complex semantic dependencies between tokens. |
| Approach: | They propose a learning-based scoring function that captures complex dependencies between tokens and probabilities and produces more reliable responses. |
| Outcome: | The proposed function outperforms existing scoring functions in question-answering and arithmetical reasoning tasks with different datasets. |
LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models (2023.emnlp-demo)
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Ekaterina Fadeeva, Roman Vashurin, Akim Tsvigun, Artem Vazhentsev, Sergey Petrakov, Kirill Fedyanin, Daniil Vasilev, Elizaveta Goncharova, Alexander Panchenko, Maxim Panov, Timothy Baldwin, Artem Shelmanov
| Challenge: | Large language models often "hallucinate" i.e., fabricate facts without providing users an apparent means to discern the veracity of their statements. |
| Approach: | They propose a framework with implementations of state-of-the-art UE methods for LLMs with unified program interfaces in Python. |
| Outcome: | The proposed framework implements state-of-the-art UE methods for LLMs with unified program interfaces in Python and an extendable benchmark for consistent evaluation by researchers. |
Efficient Out-of-Domain Detection for Sequence to Sequence Models (2023.findings-acl)
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Artem Vazhentsev, Akim Tsvigun, Roman Vashurin, Sergey Petrakov, Daniil Vasilev, Maxim Panov, Alexander Panchenko, Artem Shelmanov
| Challenge: | Sequence-to-sequence (seq2sequ) models are a ubiquitous tool for text generation but they are not suitable for many other tasks. |
| Approach: | They propose to use UE techniques to identify out-of-domain (OOD) inputs where the model is susceptible to errors. |
| Outcome: | The proposed methods outperform heavyweight ensembles on the task of OOD detection. |
Measuring Uncertainty in Neural Machine Translation with Similarity-Sensitive Entropy (2024.eacl-long)
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| Challenge: | Uncertainty estimation is an important diagnostic tool for statistical models. |
| Approach: | They propose to adapt similarity-sensitive Shannon entropy (S3E) for NMT by incorporating a concept borrowed from theoretical ecology. |
| Outcome: | The proposed framework improves quality estimation and named entity recall, and improves translation quality. |
Uncertainty Estimation of Transformer Predictions for Misclassification Detection (2022.acl-long)
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Artem Vazhentsev, Gleb Kuzmin, Artem Shelmanov, Akim Tsvigun, Evgenii Tsymbalov, Kirill Fedyanin, Maxim Panov, Alexander Panchenko, Gleb Gusev, Mikhail Burtsev, Manvel Avetisian, Leonid Zhukov
| Challenge: | Uncertainty estimation (UE) of model predictions is crucial step for a variety of tasks such as active learning, misclassification detection, adversarial attack detection, etc. |
| Approach: | They propose to modify UE methods for Transformer models for misclassification detection in named entity recognition and text classification tasks to improve model expressiveness and computational performance. |
| Outcome: | The proposed methods outperform computationally intensive methods on misclassification detection tasks and are based on a large dataset of simulated datasets. |
A Survey of Uncertainty Estimation Methods on Large Language Models (2025.findings-acl)
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| Challenge: | Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities but could produce biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses. |
| Approach: | They propose to conduct extensive experimental evaluations of LLM uncertainty estimation methods . large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across tasks . |
| Outcome: | The proposed method could produce biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses . a lack of comprehensive surveys on LLM uncertainty estimation is a problem . |
GENUINE: Graph Enhanced Multi-level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models (2025.findings-emnlp)
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| Challenge: | Existing methods for estimation of uncertainty overlook semantic dependencies, authors say . genUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling . |
| Approach: | They propose a graph-enhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty estimation framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. |
| Outcome: | The proposed framework achieves higher AUROC and lower calibration errors than existing methods. |
Learning Uncertainty from Sequential Internal Dispersion in Large Language Models (2026.acl-long)
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| Challenge: | Recent approaches to detect hallucinations depend on model internal states to estimate uncertainty, but they focus on last or mean tokens. |
| Approach: | They propose a supervised hallucination detection framework that leverages token-wise, layer-wise features derived from hidden states. |
| Outcome: | The proposed framework outperforms baseline models and avoids large training sets. |